Tuesday, June 5, 2012
Wednesday, May 16, 2012
GOOD NEWS FOR THE PROPERTY MARKET
The Reserve Bank cut rates by 50 basis
points this month. All 4 of the big banks have passed on some of the cut with
NAB passing on 32 basis points, Westpac passing on 37 basis points, the CBA
cutting their rates by 40 basis points and the ANZ by 37 basis points.
Has this rate cut made a difference to
the property market? The answer is most definitely yes, but to what extent is
not yet known. I think it will take a couple of months to see the full effect.
Any changes we do see in the property market however will not be purely down to
interest rates though. As I mentioned in some of my previous newsletters and
blog posts all the data seems to indicate we are going through a period of
stabilisation and this is further evidence of that.
I do think the rate cut will especially
encourage property investors and in particular those who have had cash on
deposit at the bank. With rental yields strengthening and interest earned on
deposits dropping investment property has now become more attractive.
Many economists feel there is still room
for further interest rate cuts down under and the Reserve Bank of
Australia (RBA) could be in agreement. Although the RBA did not explicitly say that it would sanction further
cuts to interest rates in its minutes
released yesterday, it didn't rule it out either.
Auction clearance rates for Sydney the
last two weekends were in excess of 60%, the highest we have seen for some
time. Even though stock levels are at relatively low levels, as is traditional
for this time of year, clearance rates are however much higher than they were
for the same period last year
Jobs data has also just been released. Australia’s
unemployment rate came in at 4.9% according to the Australian Bureau of
Statistics, the lowest since April 2011.
The Austalian Bureau of Statistics released
consumer confidence data this week which is also improving slowly, with retail
sales up 1.2 per cent in March.
According to Residex, house prices rose
on the lower north shore by 3.79% during the first quarter of 2012 with most of
the growth taking place in March. The data for April showed a decline in house
prices across all capital cities, however from my experience April is
traditionally one of the months with the least number of property transactions
so the data may be slightly skewed.
The Australian Dollar dropped below
parity this week. Australia has become more attractive for International Buyers
to invest in Australia. Over the past few years we have seen exchange rates
effect the buying behaviour of overseas buyers.
Monday, May 14, 2012
Friday, May 11, 2012
Tuesday, April 17, 2012
THE PROPERTY MARKET IS STABILISING
The First quarter of 2012 is over so for my
Market Update this month I would like to on what has happened over the last 3
months and based on that data look at where the property market may be heading.
Let’s look at some of the numbers (source:
RP Data):
- 0.0% change in National House Prices for the first quarter of 2012
- National house prices rose by 0.2% in March 2012
- Sydney was the best performing capital city with an increase of 1.1% for March
- The number of properties on the market has fallen by 7.3% compared with late last year
- The vacancy rate for rental properties in Sydney is at a very low 1.6%, the lowest of any capital city
- Rental yields for Sydney are also strong, with a yield of 4.3% for houses and 5% for units
- The Auction clearance rates have consistently been above 50% this year
- Unemployment remains steady at 5.2%
- Interest Rates remain on hold
Sydney has clearly been outperforming the rest of Australia, but certain
segments of the market are still suffering from an oversupply of property
relative to the reduced demand. Suburbs within close proximity to the
city, transport, amenities and infrastructure are however performing well.
On the back of Interest Rate drops in November
and December 2011 and the prediction that most economists are making that
interest rates will drop again this year, all the data suggests that the
property market is beginning to stablise and hopefully this trend will continue
I agree that we are entering the stabilisation phase of the property
cycle, where buyers are returning and slowly taking up available stock, but not
really pushing up prices yet. I think property markets are likely to remain soft
this year, but should keep consolidating.
How soon things turn around will depend a lot on buyer confidence,
and this will depend upon what’s happening overseas, how our government
performs and what happens with interest rates.
The better than expected unemployment figures in March has weakened
the case for multiple rate cuts, but economists are still tipping the Reserve
Bank to reduce the cash rate by 25 basis points when it meets on May 1.
I know the ANZ increased its home loan rates by 6 basis points last
week but yesterday I read that the St George Bank actually dropped their 1, 2
and 3 year fixed rates. Their 3 year fixed rate is now 5.99%
Unemployment remains steady at 5.2%. The
data showed 44,000 jobs were added to the national economy during March, well
above economists' expectations for an increase of 5,000 jobs, while the
participation rate (those employed or actively seeking work) rose modestly from 65.2% to 65.4%. I
read last week that the number of jobs created during March was a 1/3rd
of the number of jobs created for the same period in the US.
If you are looking to buy it looks as
though now is the right time. If you wait any longer to see if the market drops
any further you may miss out. The only true way of knowing if prices have
bottomed is to wait for data to show that prices have actually increased, by
which time you will have missed the opportunity.
Autumn and Winter are a great time to sell.
If you are thinking of selling there are two things to consider. Statistically prices
are usually higher at this time of year for the very simple reason that stock
levels are often low and property being sold now will be competing with far
fewer other properties, as the number of buyers doesn’t seem to change though.
The other factor to consider is that if the
predictions are correct and as the market continues to stabilise. I think lots
of would be sellers will put their property on the market in the spring
creating lots of competition and potentially driving prices lower.
Wednesday, April 11, 2012
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